A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
